May 10, 2017

With fewer children, Erin is stuck in the middle ages

The number of children living in the Town of Erin is at its lowest point in more than 20 years, according to 2016 census data released last week by Statistics Canada.
Although the town’s population rose 6.2 per cent to 11,439 from 2011 to 2016, the proportion of children aged 0-14 continued a long-term decline.
Back in 1996, Erin had 2,558 children, making up 24 per cent of the population. Now, we’re down to 1,750 children, making up only 15.3 per cent of the population.
By comparison, the national average for the proportion of children 0-14 is 16.6 per cent, while in nearby Georgetown, the proportion is 19.4 per cent.
The total number of children in Erin is down 6 per cent in the last five years, but it’s not as drastic as in the previous 5 years (2006-2011) when the decline was 15 per cent.
Within the 0-14 age group, Statistics Canada reports 450 Erin kids aged 0-4, 595 aged 5 to 9 years and 705 aged 10-14. If these numbers were to stay consistent, it would mean a substantially lower number of elementary school age children, since fewer young children would be entering the school system.
Among adults, Erin’s lowest population groups are ages 25-29 (490 people) and ages 30-34 (450 people). In contrast, the age 50-54 group has 1,275 people and the 55-59 group has 1,105 people.
The population is heavily weighted in the middle groups, with the number aged 35-64 totalling 5,475, almost half the total population.
The number of people in Erin aged 65 and older is 1,725, or 15.1 per cent of the population, which is also lower than the national average of 19.9 per cent.
Population growth in the urban areas of Erin village and Hillburgh is lower than the Town average of 6.2 per cent, meaning that most growth has been in the rural areas.
Erin village up is up 4.9 per cent to 2,647 people, in 1,011 private dwellings (845 being single detached homes). Hillsburgh is up 5.5 per cent to 1,124 people, in 430 private dwellings (365 being single detached homes).
Overall the Town of Erin including rural areas has some 4,100 dwellings, with 3,770 as single-detached homes, 80 attached homes, 150 apartments and 100 moveable homes.
The average household size is 2.8 persons. The breakdown is 635 dwellings with one person, 1,525 with two people, 725 with three people, 795 with four people, and 415 with five or more.
While the census has Erin’s 2016 population at 11,439, the actual number of people living in the Town is probably higher. Some people are normally missed in the census. For the 2011 census, Statistics Canada estimated the “undercount” at 4.1 per cent.